|
By VLADIMIR SOCOR* -- On Sept. 30 in Brussels, the foreign affairs ministers
of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia made what a Radio Free Europe report
called "good work of hiding what must have been a bitter disappointment."
The occasion for what has become recurrent disappointment was the annual
session of the European Union's Councils for Cooperation with those three
countries of the South Caucasus.
The region's energy reserves and unique transit potential are key to Europe's
energy balance in the years immediately ahead. This is why European interests
require a comprehensive stabilization of the South Caucasus, beginning with
serious progress on resolving regional conflicts that would lay the basis
for a regional security framework. That in turn would facilitate institution-building,
orderly government and Western investment in the region.
Absent a guiding EU vision, however, the Sept. 30 annual meetings produced
no substantive results. They did let all sides air their main concerns.
For instance, the Western-oriented countries of Georgia and Azerbaijan urged
the EU to become, in its own interest, a direct player in the efforts toward
conflict resolution in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Karabakh. The extant
negotiating forums, under U.N. or OSCE aegis, are almost a decade old and
merely conserving those conflicts.
But the EU--said the Georgians and Azeris in Brussels--has the interest,
political influence and economic resources to promote stability and security
in the region, alongside the U.S. And even the Russian-oriented Armenia
joined its two neighbors in urging the EU to give all three countries a
positive signal regarding the prospect of EU accession over time, linked
to conflict resolution and internal reforms.
Brussels itself recognizes that the prospect of associate membership and
ultimate accession is the EU's most effective stimulus for conflict resolution
and internal reforms in countries within the EU's new neighborhood. This
is stated in the EU's recently unveiled Wider Europe document. The problem
is that the EU has simply excluded the three South Caucasus countries from
both the Wider Europe and the New Neighbors Initiative. The concept and
the initiative variously include all the countries from Morocco to Syria,
as well as Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and Russia, but incredibly leave the
South Caucasus out.
As a sop for that exclusion, the EU has instituted a Special Representative
for the South Caucasus in July of this year, and sent him on a get-acquainted
visit to the region in August. There were four years of internal discussions
before Brussels finally took this step. Those discussions at times turned
into dialectical exercises: Should the EU wait some more, and create that
post only after formulating a strategy for the South Caucasus? or should
Brussels create that post in order to facilitate the subsequent adoption
of a strategy?
As it turns out, the Special Representative's mandate does not empower him
to promote oil and gas pipelines and other energy interests, nor Asia-Europe
transport corridors via the South Caucasus. The mandate authorizes him merely
to "assist" the existing, U.N.- and OSCE-sponsored negotiations on conflict
settlement; it stops shy of a role for the EU in its own right based on
its interests. Otherwise, the mandate is wide-ranging on reform and democratization
issues.
This Special Representative for the South Cacasus will, however, be based
in Helsinki because he happens to be a Finnish diplomat. The 1939-born,
Kekkonen-era veteran Heikki Talvitie was ambassador to the former Soviet
Union and to the former Yugoslavia. He served for one year (1995-96) as
co-chairman of the OSCE's Minsk Group which mediates negotiations on the
Karabakh conflict.
Meanwhile, the EU contents itself with a modest role in pipeline and other
transit projects. This is triply incongruous. First, EU member and candidate
countries are the main prospective consumers of Caspian oil and gas. Second,
European companies (such as British Petroleum and Norway's Statoil in Azerbaijan,
Italy's ENI and France's TotalFinaElf in Kazakhstan) are among the main
players in Caspian energy projects. And, third, the EU itself had originally
envisaged direct imports of Caspian oil and gas, as one of the main functions
of the European Union's Traceca (Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia)
and Inogate (International Oil and Gas Transport to Europe) programs, launched
amid great expectations in 1993 and 1995, respectively. Almost a decade
later, however, Traceca and Inogate languish underfunded and no longer seem
to envisage Caspian pipelines.
The U.S.-promoted East-West Energy Corridor, from the Caspian basin via
the South Caucasus and Turkey to Europe, would fulfill part of Traceca's
and Inogate's initial objectives. The EU, however, now seems only remotely
interested. Some EU officials simply tell their American counterparts that
the transit of Caspian oil and gas is a matter for the EU-Russia energy
dialogue. This shift seems to allow Russian transit of the lion's share
of Caspian energy supplies to Europe in the years to come.
Russia's policy seeks to combine Caspian energy resources with Russia's
own into a single pool for export under Russian physical and commercial
control. This would defeat the common American and European interests in
diversifying Europe's energy supplies and in avoiding European exposure
to supplier leverage. American policy, focusing (though not always consistently)
on those common goals, continues a long-standing Euro-Atlantic policy. This
fact does not seem to inspire the EU's current energy policy.
In sum: Brussels should include Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia in the New
Neighbors initiative, and give them positive signals regarding association
and eventual accession prospects, with conditions and timetables. In no
way must these countries' EU status be linked to Turkey's hypothetical entry
in the EU, inasmuch as the Turkish candidacy itself is a very long shot,
dependent on multiple linkages and adverse political interests.
There is no valid reason for the EU to subsume South Caucasus-Caspian countries
to the EU-Russia energy dialogue. Brussels should hold a direct dialogue
with the region's oil and gas producer and transit countries, bilaterally
and multilaterally. It should adequately fund Traceca and Inogate for the
purposes originally envisaged by these strategic projects.
Regular meetings of EU bodies with the South Caucasus countries, both bilaterally
and multilaterally, would be especially useful at both the policy-making
and functional levels. The EU clearly needs to increase its expert staff
on this region. At present, the West's sole comprehensive program on Black
Sea Security Studies is located in the U.S. at Harvard, with an active outreach
in the South Caucasus countries. There's nothing comparable in Europe.
The EU must join the U.S. in the conflict-resolution efforts, so as to achieve
a critical mass that would stabilize the region in accordance with Western
interests and those of the region's countries. And the next EU Special Representative's
office should be based in Brussels or, better still, in the region itself,
with an adequate mandate and staff.
If all this looks like a tall order in Brussels now, it is because far from
enough has been done these past 12 years. At the moment, EU policy toward
this region is a case of too little. It must not also become a case of too
late.
* Mr. Socor is a senior fellow of the Washington-based Institute
for Advanced Strategic & Political Studies.
|