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ArmeniaLiberty.org -- By Breffni O'Rourke in Prague -- Armenia, Azerbaijan
and Georgia, more than a decade after gaining their independence,
remain politically volatile and still struggle with realizing their
economic promise. Separatist tendencies and frozen conflicts still
plague the region. Georgia and Azerbaijan have recently undergone
leadership changes, so what hope is there for a fresh start? The European
Parliament's rapporteur for the Southern Caucasus, Per Gahrton of
Sweden, has filed a report on the situation in the region, which the
full Parliament is expected to adopt. RFE/RL correspondent Breffni
O'Rourke speaks with Gahrton about his views on the future of the
Southern Caucasus.
QUESTION: What are the major problems facing the Southern Caucasus
republics, economically and politically?
ANSWER: "Economically and socially, they are in a mess, more
or less since the disruption of the Soviet Union. They have not
recovered, they have not succeeded in changing over from a socialist
planned economy into a functioning market economy. They have deteriorated
into mafia and clan-ruled, corrupted economies, where major incomes
come from nonproductive activities, like smuggling and taking bribes.
So the vast majority of the population have suffered an enormous
decrease in their living standards."
QUESTION: Could you elaborate on the political situation?
ANSWER: "There are also positive signs, like the fact that
these countries are not dictatorships. They are not full-fledged
democracies, but there is the possibility for opposition, most,
of course, in Georgia, but also in the other countries. You have
human rights organizations. You have some kind of debate. It is
not the Soviet-type system any more at all, and it is not fascist,
either. It is poorly working nascent democracy, I would say."
QUESTION: Have the leadership changes in Georgia set the stage
for improvements?
"[The present leadership] came to their senses several years
ago and realized it was not possible to simply go on, so they all
quit the gang of [then-President Eduard] Shevardnadze and started
real opposition. And by pursuing this real opposition for fair elections,
and against corruption and really starting from the bottom up to
restructure Georgian society in a modern and a democratic way, as
we know from the presidential elections, they got an absolutely
unique amount of confidence from the population. I mean, this was
a purely fair and democratic election, when a president was elected
with figures like we are used to seeing in dictatorships, but this
was not a dictatorship. This was absolutely fair. I was there, and
everybody agrees, it was a free election, and people wanted Mr.
[Mikheil] Saakashvili -- 95 percent and more wanted him. So that
is an enormous sign of hope and confidence and gives him an enormous
responsibility to deliver pretty soon."
QUESTION: And what of Azerbaijan, where the late President Heydar
Aliev was replaced by his son Ilham?
ANSWER: "I had the opportunity to meet with the new president,
Mr. Ilham Aliev, and he had two faces at the meeting with me. First,
with Azerbaijani journalists and aides present, he talked in Azerbaijani,
and he was very, very tough, according to the translations. Then
he sent them out, all of them, and then there was only me and my
adviser, and him and an adviser, and then he talked in almost fluent
English, and it was quite another approach. He was very conciliatory,
and he really wanted to meet with [people], especially concerning
the conflict with Armenia. I mean, if he was not bluffing all the
time -- and I don't think he was -- I think there is a possibility
for an opening up and reconciliation with Armenia.
"And that is the basic prerequisite also for democracy in
Azerbaijan, because when you have such conflicts, the country is
occupied, several provinces are occupied, 1 million people are internal
refugees, it creates enormous tension in the country. It is difficult
to maintain a real working democracy. So I think there is a link,
and there is a hope, but international society must act forcefully,
to push them. They need to be pushed, both Aliev in Azerbaijan and
[President Robert] Kocharian in Armenia -- they need [us to push
them] and they ask us to push them."
QUESTION: So there are prospects for ending the long-running dispute
between the two neighbors over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave?
ANSWER: "I think there is a minimum compromise possible, and
that would be that Nagorno Karabakh would not become an internationally
acknowledged state with a seat in the United Nations, etc. That's
what the so-called president of the enclave (Arkady Ghukasian) has
told me - that's not the most important thing for them. But they
will never accept to be administratively subordinated to authorities
in Baku. That is their bottom line. So they could be from a formal,
legal point of view still a part of Azerbaijan, but they should
have a complete autonomy on everything that is important in everyday
life. But they do not demand to have a seat in the United Nations
or the Council of Europe or whatever -- there, Azerbaijan could
sit for them, or not for them, or whatever. They have stopped demanding
that because they have understood it is not realistic, that the
international community is not in favor of establishing more sovereign
states.
"And as for the Azerbaijanis, what do they want? They really
don't want to rule the [Nagorno Karabakh] Armenians any more. They
have understood that that is out."
QUESTION: You suggested earlier that the Southern Caucasus region
needs more international support?
ANSWER: "It needs international support, but it does not need
a continuation of the so-called 'Great Game.' That has done a lot
of damage to that area, including the greater area with Afghanistan,
and all these things, where great powers have fought for their own
interests."
QUESTION: Is it important that the European Union is considering
incorporating the Southern Caucasus republics into its Wider Europe
program, which allows for intensified relations with the EU?
ANSWER: "We [in the EU] have one enormous advantage, and that
is that these three states, they have a European ambition, they
don't want to return to the Russian fold, and they neither want
to nor are able to become states or dependencies of the U.S.A.
"But they are already members of the Council of Europe, and
they have ambitions -- difficult as that may seem -- to become full
members of the European Union, and in order to make this more possible,
they are ready to adapt."
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