Question & Answer
Oskanian, on the Nagorno Karabakh Negotiations, on the Eve of Kazan: "They Can Neither Seduce us nor Scare us with their Oil"
August 20, 2005
Q.: Prior to the presidents' meeting in Kazan, Azerbaijan's assessments of the Nagorno Karabakh resolution process have become more frequent. Specifically, Azerbaijani officials of varying capacities, have made statements on different occasions, alleging that the essence of the Prague Process is a stage-by-stage solution, and that time works in their favor, and that international public opinion is moving in their direction. On the other hand, they also say that the negotiations are not productive and that "we must be prepared for everything," most probably having in mind a military solution to the conflict, since Azerbaijan's military budget has increased by one-third. What are your interpretations of these statements?

A.: As a rule, each time Azerbaijan does not achieve what it wants, they either badmouth the Minsk Group, or express dissatisfaction or disaffection with the negotiations process, thus creating new political backdrop for the next stage of the negotiating process. That's what they're trying to do now.

As for the Azerbaijani characterization of the Prague Process, here too, they are talking not about what is, but about what they would like to see. It is clear to everyone, including the Azerbaijanis, that Karabakh's self-determination is the key issue, which must find expression in the right of the people of Nagorno Karabakh to decide its own future. The remainder - doing away with the consequences of the conflict, the issue of territories, return of refugees, etc. - will follow. Of course, the package solution of the conflict may be implemented in stages; in this regard, we are prepared to demonstrate flexibility.

As for the time factor, I will repeat that which we all know: time works to no one's advantage, because as a result of the unresolved conflict, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh all suffer. On the other hand, an Azerbaijani military budget that is bloated by oil dollars, doesn't change anything. First, they can neither seduce nor, worse, scare us with their oil. Armenia always has the ability to militarily counter any Azerbaijani military budget. In fact, the advantage that Armenians have over Azerbaijan is not in military expenditures or arms, but in the justness of the cause. Armenians believe that the Nagorno Karabakh cause is just, and in case of war, they will be fighting for their own homes and land. This is not what the Azerbaijanis did or would do.

It would be better for Azerbaijan to compete not militarily, but engage in healthy economic and political competition. And in those realms, today, Azerbaijan is far from challenging Armenia or even Nagorno Karabakh.

As for the position of the international community, they are assessing the situation more realistically, and are reckoning with reality and fact. The international trend regarding conflicts -- East Timor, developments around Kosovo, the Sudan Agreement -- all these developments demonstrate that the international community today is leaning towards greater respect for the right of peoples to self-determination.

 
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